Excavator sales in July 2012 were lower than expected

Excavator sales are in the off-season, with a double decline compared to the same period last year. According to statistics, in July 2012, 28 major excavator manufacturers sold a total of 5886 excavators, a year-on-year decrease of 23.21% and a month on month decrease of 28.97%. The total sales volume of the industry from January to July was 84500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 37.18%.

Exports continue to grow significantly and their proportion has increased. In July, 576 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 114.93%, accounting for 9.79%, and continuing to increase from the previous month's 8.12%.

Continuation of import substitution. In July 2012, the 9 major foreign brands of excavators sold 2905 units, a year-on-year decrease of 33.57% and a month on month decrease of 24.47%, accounting for 49.35%. withKomatsu excavatorThe sales proportion of foreign brands represented by ____ is 52.75%, which has significantly decreased compared to last year. Chinese brands have performed well in fierce competition.

In this month's product structure, the proportion of middle digging has significantly increased. Compared with the previous 6 months, the proportion of medium excavation of 19-30 tons in July has significantly increased, reaching 41.79%, while the proportion of large excavation of over 30 tons and small excavation of less than 19 tons has decreased.

The recent stock price performance of related listed companies is still acceptable. The stock prices of seven major listed companies related to excavators have all risen in the past week, with only two underperforming the A-share index (up 1.46%). The largest increase was seen by Zoomlion at 5.06%, while the smallest increase was seen by Shanhe Intelligence at 0.93%; In the past month, there have been mixed ups and downs, with three companies rising and outperforming the entire A-share index (up -2.05%). The largest increase was seen by Zoomlion at 3.87%, while the largest decrease was seen by Shanhe Intelligence at 5.93%; Over the past year, two companies have risen, but all have outperformed the A-share index (with a rise of -17.02%). Zoomlion Heavy Industry has seen the largest increase at 31.02%, while Sany Heavy Industry has experienced the largest decline at 11.06%.

　　Investment advice

Although the overall sales of the industry have declined significantly, the sales of second-hand excavators are still good. At the same time, as a representative of infrastructure demand, the year-on-year decline in sales of Zhongdao continued to narrow in July. The logic of infrastructure recovery driving excavator demand can be verified in the sales changes of Zhongdao. Considering the recovery of infrastructure, there are still high expectations for sales during the peak season in the second half of the year (after September). In addition, sales of concrete machinery are expected to continue to be positive in the third quarter. We believe that the rebound in the stock price of construction machinery is expected to continue. But as the mid year report disclosure period approaches, the decline in mid year performance of second tier brands is generally significant. We believe that leading companies with better rebound performance are expected to have greater profits.

　　Risk statement

The timing and intensity of the government's increased investment are still uncertain. Once the timing of investment acceleration is later or the investment intensity is lower than expected, the sales driving effect of construction machinery will be limited, and the industry's prosperity cannot be rapidly improved.